The Looming War in Korea

The following is a response to a post on Facebook where the phrase “looming war in Korea” was used:

ALL Western press don’t know what they’re talking about when they mention either Korea—it’s no joke to say that 95% of articles get stuff about 99% wrong.

There is no looming war in or with the DPRK, the press, particularly in the West, scapegoat and fear monger every event like it’s the assassination of a duke and “this is it boys / this is war” … it’s just not happening.

The overall situation, the armistice, the DPRK’s rockets, China’s involvement and South Korea are all constantly and horribly simplified for American consumption. any war would pull the US, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea in immediately as those nations are involved in the so-called “six party talks” that used to happen when an official end to the war was wanted. Four of those countries are in the top ten GDP; Russia is 12th … a war would seriously mess with economies worldwide—yes, world wars do just that, but there aren’t enough crazies involved and there’s nothing to gain aside from some mineral resources in the DPRK which China is already manipulated away. all six nations have everything to lose in a war.

To make a war on the Korean peninsula a thing, the DPRK probably has to hit the US with a nuke, that’s the only thing that would break the stalemate. such a launch would be detected early and very likely the militaries of the other five nations would move to destroy the missile because of the stakes. But the DPRK doesn’t have that missile and they don’t have the balls to launch one if they did, as the country exists by the sole grace of China as a wedge in regional politics. The very, very, very last thing China wants is to be pitted against its largest customer (the United States) in a war where the interests of South Korea and Japan align and they become allies. Everyone loses and everyone is too rich and busy trying to twist and fuck the world in other ways to ignite this place.

Consistently, constantly reliable sources on all things “Korea” come via anything with Bruce Cummings speaking (most recently on Democracy Now; linked below); One Free Korea (; the BBC is hit and miss; Al Jazeera is more right than wrong—the South Korean press doesn’t talk about any war unless the DRPK does something to South Koreans, like shooting a tourist on the beach, like attacking and sinking coast guard boats, like shelling a disputed island and killing South Korean citizens.

Trump is all talk and no action. He could do an op like he did in Yemen, but there’s no way the military brass would go along with it, at least not until the troops in South Korea are finished consolidating at the new base south of Seoul, but even then, the local general, US ambassador, and local advisors would make cooler heads prevail because they understand the situation.

For a war to happen without the DPRK nuking the US with a missile … Trump would have to replace all the folks in South Korea with morons, specifically morons that did not give any crap about civilian deaths which would easily be 20% of the South Korean population in the first few hours of a conflict without a nuke as conventional artillery positions in the North have the ability to dump enough rounds on Seoul in the first hours and there are more positions than the Joint Forces could eliminate in reasonable-loss-of-life timeframe and those positions have had 60 years to dig in (longer than the Imperial Empire had to dig in in the Pacific) and prepare for air strikes … 20% is the low estimate, Bruce Cummings put this at 33% a two weeks ago—imagine a refugee crisis where not millions, but tens of millions of people flood into China, Japan, Russia, the US territories, and Hawaii fleeing a conventional war on the peninsula …

… it is just not going to happen.

A Trump war would be somewhere that has little overall impact on the US economy and his personal wallet, somewhere where multinationals can make a nice buck on death, Syria looked good for this, but that Trump-Putin relationship will probably keep it from happening unless that’s part of their joke.

tagged as: China, , Japan, North Korea, , , , , war